By Martin Oluba N., PhD, DBA
We typically trade our beliefs about the market and once we’ve made up our minds about those beliefs, we’re not likely to change them. And when we play the markets, we assume that we are considering all of the available information. Instead, our beliefs, through selective perception, may have eliminated the most useful information. -Van K. Tharp
Puzzles: Nigerian Stock Market and Information
In recent times the Nigerian capital market has been recording consistent strong growth and has joined the global league of top 10 markets with best returns to investors. Reasons for this include the massive funds availability following the recapitalization and consolidation of the banking sub-sector as well as increasing awareness of the high returns that the market has been offering to investors. The heightened market upsides, which is largely a consequence of banking sub-sector recapitalization-induced and liquidity-driven demand pressure provided some alternative to keeping money in commercial banks where the interest rates (returns) are usually much lower. Another view is that the bullish trend has been sustained largely by peer bandwagon effect and thus little consideration is given to fundamental issues in the market. To this latter group, the growth in the market is just a bubble that would simply bust at the appropriate time because the growth cannot be justified by fundamental values that should ordinarily affect the market. However current fundamental values need not be the only basic determinants of market performance as expectations of future performance, which in turn are based both on current and future expected fundamental indicators, is a much stronger factor. But the question has remained whether these fundamental value based expectations are valid and can be justified by the existence of these potential lead indicators. Sometimes, this relationship appears to be non-existent, especially in the Nigerian market, and thus gives credence to the notion that the Nigerian capital market is heavily insulated from the developments that should ordinarily affect its performance.
This is a huge puzzle and implies that the market is largely unpredictable based on the fundamental values beyond known financial performance, which in themselves alone do not alter the market significantly. Thus when a downward trend is generally expected, the prices go up and vice versa. (more…)