Hi folks, I know you want to say “where have you been for all these months?” or ” How come you haven’t written a single article in 4 months?” I really don’t know the answer. I must admit quite honestly that even right now I don’t feel like or want to write anything.

It’s not because there aren’t things to write, it’s just because I feel quite unmotivated and unworthy to write them. Anyway, I’m writing now ain’t I? So please just bear with me and read on…this will bless you.

I once heard about the parable of the monkeys. Once upon a time a monkey was placed in a particular cage with a bunch of bananas hanging from the top of the cage. Naturally, the monkey swung up the cage excitedly and reached up for the bananas, he was immediately doused with a jet of cold water from a hose that was aimed at the cage. Immediately, he dived back down to the bottom of the cage. Of course, monkeys don’t give in that easily so he tried again – no one was going to deter him from feasting on the bananas. He swung up again to retrieve the bunch of bananas but as soon as he almost touched it, he got doused with water again. He immediately dived back down looking for the source of his affliction (apes hate water). He couldn’t really see anybody and tried after a few minutes. He got doused again. He tried again and again and each time he got doused again and again. After a few days and many attempts, he stopped trying.

One month after, another monkey was brought into the cage. The monkey saw the bunch of bananas and immediately went for it (Note: The bunch of bananas were changed to fresh ones from time to time). He got the shock of his life as a jet of cold water hit him in the face. He quickly scurried to the bottom of the cage and waited a few minutes for the shock to wear off before trying again. He got the same result and after trying a while and getting drenched, he understood why the first monkey wasn’t as eager as he was to eat “free” bananas hanging at the top of the cage. He also succumbed to fate and stopped trying to get the bananas.

Another month after, a new monkey was introduced into the cage. As custom will have it, he went straight for the bunch of fresh bananas he saw hanging at the top of the cage but the other two monkeys went for it as pulled it down with his legs. They immediately pounced on it and beat it silly and into submission. They did that because they knew he would get sprayed with water  and all of them will get wet. They didn’t want to get wet and they knew that he wont get the bananas anyway so they took steps to ensure it didn’t happen. After a while of trying and getting beaten, the monkey gave up trying. One month went by and another monkey was introduced into the cage. He suffered the same fate as the 3rd monkey only that the 3rd monkey was involved in beating him up and keeping him from getting the bunch of bananas.

After a few weeks, the first two monkeys were taken out of the cage. Now of the two monkeys remaining in the cage, none of them actually had water sprayed on them for reaching for the bananas. They were only restrained with pain by the first two monkeys.

Yet another month went by and another monkey was introduced into the cage. He immediately was giving the customary beating treatment when he tried to get the bunch of bananas. After trying a while and getting beat a few times, he suddenly blurted

“Why are you monkeys beating me and holding me back?”

The other monkeys looked at themselves blankly and said

“We don’t know, we don’t know why we are beating you? We were beating as well when we came and tried to reach for the bunch so we just took on the custom of beating every other monkey who tried to reach for the bananas”.

How many of us are like that? We don’t why we are where we are or why we are doing what we are doing. We just know that that is how it should be done. Who told you that? Who told you that you must have only one stream of income? Who told you that you can not live above sin? Who told you that you can’t own your business? Who told you that you can not be financially free?

We were mostly brought up hearing our parents and environment say,

“Get a good education, get a good job thereafter, work all your life, retire broke and busted with a good pension and die!”

What a big lie!

You are like the monkeys!

Why can’t you dare the jet of water and pull out all stops to get the bananas!

What is your own excuse? Are you pulling others down who are trying to get the bananas?

Have you been enslaved by the system?

Do you merely wish freedom or do you DESIRE it?

Listen!!! those who have tried and failed have been taken out of the cage!

Ask yourselves what they did and how you can do it better?

Perhaps, if the three remaining monkeys planned to go for the bananas together the focus of the water spray would be divided and one of them would have been able to get the bunch.

Instead of proliferating negativity and pessimism, think of another way to achieve your dream and go for it.

LIFE DOES NOT GIVE YOU WHAT YOU DESERVE, IT GIVES YOU WHAT YOU DEMAND.

“if God judge count the iniquity of the wicked, who shall stand?”

I seat here watching and listening to intermittently the CEOs of banks in the U.S giving comprehensive account of their transactions with regards to the bailout they got from the government a while ago. I see seated all the CEOs of the big and mightly banks. The JP Morgan Chases, Goldman Sachhs of this world are ably represented as they say what and what they have done with the moneys given to them an what amount of profit or loss they have made.

The idea behind the committee that is holding them accountable is to find out whether the CEOs can be trusted as proper custodians of public funds and whether or not they will sacrifice all that is needed to ensure that Americans have access to proper credit again credibly in the bid to grow the sunken economy.

The last time some of them were told to give account, questions fired at them bothered on their own personal sacrifices and those of the management with regards to crises situations. Questions like “Did you arrive by private jet or did you take the train or did you fly first class?” were thrown at them to see what lengths they were willing to go to indicate their empathy with Americans and the American economy crisis at present. Those whose personal spending habits didn’t reflect what they drafted on paper as reports were seriously reprimanded.

And then suddenly, with tears in my eyes, I ask myself “when will this happen in Nigeria?” When will the Jim Ovias and Tony Elumelus be brought before an equitable committee to give an account of how they have put public funds to use?

When will there be a harmonised financial year end for banks so that all the buffering up of accounts from one bank to another and mistatement of accounts by so-called auditors who have been bribed stop?

When will even the CBN governor be able brought to accountability on his projections, his statements and the state of the economy as a fall out of his policies or inactions?

This hand-in-glove arrangement that the banks have with the CBN governor such that the true state of health of the banks are not disclosed despite the fact that billions of naira of public funds are at risk may have been exposed by then.

When will those who are in charge of leading, driving and growing our economy be brought to accountability in the face of their woeful failures?

I can’t wait. I just can’t. Even the Bank of England governor can attest that the nation is in deep recession. Our own CBN governor can’t even state the banks that are “living dead” and find a solution to rescuing the public’s funds.

Who will bell the banks? and when? In the New Nigeria, I believe all that should be will be.

This is quite a lengthy article but a must read for every Nigerian who loves his country. Just when we were beginning to rejoice that our economy was moving vertically upwards and that our currency was getting stronger, something seems to have pulled out the floor from under us and everything seems to be plummeting towards ground zero. I just read this article in the newspapers and feel I need to post it as it is. If those managing the economy of this country are so intent on destroying it, then we who are bound by oaths to save this country need to rise up and deliver the future. The president yesterday or today inaugurated a team that will look into and combat the financial meltdown that is upon us in the country. As usual, he has chosen a reactive means rather than a proactive one to address serious national issues.  I find this article very insightful and interesting. It doesn’t mean that the article portrays my views about the situation or that I totally support the facts but it’s really an eye-opener. It’s titled “Naira’s strategic crash”.

Naira’s strategic crash
Written by Les Leba
Wednesday, January 14, 2009

News Analysis

In August 2007, President Yar’Adua shot down the Central Bank’s proposed Strategic Agenda for the Naira (SAN) on the grounds that the Presidency was excluded from its conception.

In spite of the announcement that an adhoc economic team had been constituted to re-evaluate the proposal, nothing more was heard of the verdict of government’s economic experts.

This presumably could mean that no merit was discerned in the proposals for naira redenomination and for dollar derived revenue to be paid as dollar allocations to the three tiers of government.

Indeed, the tenets of CBN Governor’s proposed Strategic Agenda for the Naira was a complete somersault from the overt inclinations of Soludo’s prevailing monetary framework, but the proposals were surprisingly in consonance with the framework which I had canvassed unceasingly for over seven years, in spite of the indifference and open derision by the CBN!

We have always insisted that all the permutations for a development agenda, from NEEDS, to SEEDS to LEEDS to NAPEP, etc, etc, would come to naught if the CBN continued to impound federal dollar derived revenue and substitute naira allocations!

To be fair, President Yar’Adua may be excused for his suspicion of CBN’s sudden turnaround in its monetary policy framework after earlier assurances and promises that the Nigerian economy was treading the path of recovery and development under expert professorial guidance.

The issue of redenomination, as canvassed by Soludo, may also have smelt foul to Mr. President, seeing that billions of naira of public funds had just been expended in designing, producing and promoting the acceptance of new currency notes and coins!

The thought of discarding these notes and coins barely six months or so after introduction certainly would not sit well if viewed from the perspective of any rational person. Indeed, our advice in several articles that the issue is not that of new currencies but that of value or related purchasing power went unheeded!

Our prediction that the coins would not be adopted because of their meaningless values was similarly discountenanced! Today, the CBN is stuck with container loads of valueless coins for which it has now placed newspaper adverts to solicit for those buyers who may want to recycle the coins into bangles, trinkets, copper pipe and wires or other forms of designs or gift items and artworks!

Not even a hurriedly enacted legislation with prison terms and fines as penalty have induced the public to patronize the new coins or treat our currency notes with respect! (See our article “RESPECT FOR THE NAIRA”) at www.geocities.com/lesleba.

The CBN’s subdued acceptance of the government’s suspension of its Strategic Agenda for a healthy naira may be seen as an indication of Soludo’s lack of faith even in his own proposal!

If, indeed, the CBN believed in the power and relevance of its ‘new’ agenda in promoting economic development in the face of increasing poverty in the land, the CBN failed to exercise its constitutional duty to promote policies which will improve the common good and discard policies with negative or adverse consequences for the economy!

In other words, something else other than the desire to serve our people faithfully and productively goaded the CBN Governor to continue in the pursuit of defective monetary policies!

In our paper titled, “A LIBERALISED FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET: a proposal for a liberalized foreign exchange market in Nigeria and its economic benefits” – Boyo/Ojomaikre, we had insisted that the system where the CBN was the major direct supplier of both naira and dollar to the money market was an unhealthy monopoly with serious consequences for a market-determined economy!

Our advice that the three tiers of government be given dollar certificates (not cash) for distributable dollar derived revenue to ensure a market-determined naira rate that will stimulate economic growth was discountenanced and the CBN subsequently responded with its farcical so-called ‘liberalized foreign exchange market’, which in reality was no different from the earlier and existing market frameworks, called DAS, WDAS, IFEM, AFEM, etc.

The common denominator of all these foreign exchange market contraptions was the maintenance of the CBN’s stranglehold on the dollar market and the consolidation of a market system which ultimately instigated increasing poverty with increasing wealth!

The evidence of this correlation was amplified when our dollar reserves rose to over $60bn at a time we became classified amongst the world’s poorest nations!

In fact, monetary policy in that period became so confused that the CBN appeared embarrassed by our sudden healthy reserve balances and decided that the best way to use up the reserves was to allocate over $3bn every month to Bureaus de Change (BDCs) patrons.

Our entreaties in various articles of the suicidal consequences of this profligacy were ignored as the BDCs became an easy pool for capital flight as looters of public treasury and smugglers of contraband had a field day.

The result is now plain for all to see— divestment by such multi-nationals like Dunlop and Michelin and the suffocation of indigenous small and medium enterprises which are generally regarded as the engine of growth in all economies!

The admission of increasing unemployment and insecurity by various agencies of government can only be a confirmation that our monetary policy experts failed woefully to turn our years of plenty into meaningful welfare improvement for our people.

Now that the locust years are at hand, Nigerians should be ready to finally lay undisputed claim to the lowest rung of the world’s poverty ladder!

Indeed, in spite of the sustained increase in reserves from less than $20bn a few years back to over $60bn in November 2008, Nigerians ignored our clarion observation that the naira rate of exchange to the dollar remained resistant rather than its touted state of stability by all and sundry, including the poorly informed Chambers of Commerce and Association of Manufacturers!

Our sometimes irreverent overtures to these pillars of the private sector to see reality were unceremoniously rebuffed! Regrettably, the chickens have now come home to roost! In less than six weeks, the naira rate has depreciated by almost 50% with no end yet in sight!

The CBN has once again suddenly accepted our enduring observation that it is not in its mandate to sell dollars to BDCs, while our foreign reserves have quickly fallen by almost 15% in six weeks; at this rate of depletion, we may inexplicably have zero reserves before year end and we may need to go borrowing big time before the end of 2009; never mind the CBN’s often expressed notions of over 30 months of imports cover provided by our level of reserves!

The tragic thing about the above scenario is that the CBN Governor confidently confirms that the devaluation of the naira is deliberate and designed to ensure a balance in government revenue against projected expenditure!

In other words, the depletion in our oil revenue will be countered by deliberate devaluation of the naira so as to ameliorate any potential deficit in the quantum naira available for monthly allocation! In this wise, we may see the naira rate fall to almost N200/$1 before year end!

This would be no surprise as the government’s economic bible, NEEDS 1 & 2, had projected a naira value of over N180/$1 as the appropriate exchange level that will drive economic development!

It was a tragedy of epic proportions to watch the standing ovation by members of the National Assembly in response to Prof. Soludo’s presentation in defence of the deliberate policy to devalue the naira!

One day, one day, their abysmal ignorance or complicity in deceit will be blown wide open, but regrettably, millions of lives would have been depraved by the self interest of a few Nigerians!

SAVE THE NAIRA, SAVE NIGERIANS!

Africa has been dubbed the untouched and virgin continent. This was due to the seeming unscathing of African countries in the global meltdown that characterised the latter part of 2008. African seems to have escaped almost wholly from the economic recession that hit the world and crushed many countries and multinationals in other continents of the world. Iceland is bankrupt, auto makers in the US are bankrupt; Mega Banks in UK, Japan, Switzerland, US, Belgium, Germany and many other countries of the world would have gone under but for aid from their governments. Albeit, many banks have still being crushed in the wake of the recession.

However, Nigeria for one has been touched by the recession. Even though the Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria has kept assuring Nigerians that we are beyond the reach of the economic whiplash swinging across the globe, happenings in our own economy are pointers to the fact that his assurances hold no water. Examples are:

1. The crash of the NSE

The Nigerian Stock Exchange fell through about the same time the economic crisis started in the west last year. The Central Bank of Nigeria ordered banks to refrain from giving margin facilities to investors and SEC pegged the condition for the rise in value of a stock to its ability to trade over 100,000 units. Investors immediately lost confidence in the market and the inevitable loss of the All Share Index started. One policy after another was released to the public by SEC, CBN and NSE at different times to help boost the market but it seemed to have tipped. The irrecoverable free fall cost the lives of many as people who had so much exposure with regards loans decided to end their lives as they couldn’t take the pressure anymore. The NSE has since lost more and more value as institutional investors (especially foreign ones) cashed out of the Exchange unable to vouch for the credibility of the market any longer. All those who had planned on creating a path to financial independence through the NSE are having to look elsewhere now as all their investments have at least been cut to about one-third the value a few months ago.

2. The crash of Oil

When the stock exchange started making people cry, and even die, another opportunity opened up in the Oil and Gas industry. Oil seemed to be the next panacea. Oil products were selling for unbelievable margins. The price of crude oil per barrel had hit $150 and was reaching for $200. AGO (Diesel) in particular was the next best thing to be involved with. The commodity is in high demand in Nigeria and completely deregulated by the Federal Government. This made it an all-comers market. People made as much as NGN1billion in single deals on oil products. DPK (Kerosene) and LPFO were not left out. As if the cloud that had hung over the NSE was moving in the Oil and Gas direction, the price of crude oil started to dip in the international market. People started incurring losses and getting heavily indebted to banks who were financing oil deals. The volatility in the market made it even harder to play in and ultimately it also bottomed out with the price of crude oil hitting below $40 per barrel. Banks stopped financing Oil deals. Gist had it that collectively they were exposed to the tune of almost NGN400billion. Bad debt that is.

3. The rise of Real Estate.

Immediately, opportunities moved from Oil & Gas to Real Estate. 3 bedroom flats were going for about $3million in places like Banana Estate. Rental rates increased by as much as 100% in some places. It seemed as if those who lost in categories 1. and 2. wanted to recoup through category 3.

4. The crash of Real Estate

This boom unfortunately like the golden era of real estate and mortgages both in Europe and America which has since crashed, appears to be headed for the precipice and signs abound to that fact. Banks had financed loans with which developers built houses. These houses are still on the market with no buyers in sight because of the low cash flow of buyers due to number 1. and 2. above. Even buyers who had bought had bought with loans from the same or other banks. One way or the other, banks have financed loans from both developers and buyers and neither of these have the cash flow to repay the loans. The banks are therefore foreclosing on the properties and selling at any price possible to regain their monies and developers are making distress sales at ridiculously low prices to offset their loans and keep the banks at bay. One way or another, the property market in Nigeria is headed for a crash and Lagos is leading the downward tumble predict analysts. Brace up for this eventuality and get out of the way if you can.